Box office prediction for Bohemian Rhapsody

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Box office prediction for Bohemian Rhapsody

Postby Michael Allred » Wed Oct 17, 2018 11:56 am

Legit predictions from reliable box office sites are projecting the film to debut in America with an opening weekend of around $30 million which would make it the 2nd largest ever here for musical biopics after the smash hit "Straight Outta Compton." 
After that, who is to say? Much will depend on critics reviews, word of mouth and competition. 
I've been following box office numbers personally for almost 20 years.
My educated guess is that while $100 million is far out of the question in America, I can see it finishing it's run in the $50 to $60 million range and for Queen that would be a bonafide hit. 
One variable here that could change it up a bit is the awards season. If early indicators are accurate and Rami Malek's performance of Freddie are as good as they say, if he starts getting a slew of Best Actor nominations then the film will perform even better. Same goes for the film itself, the more nominations it garners, the more the acclaim will attract folks to see it. 

As for the rest of the world, considering Queen's long time popularity and Freddie's ascent into god-like status, I would venture to say $100 million from all other territories combined is almost a sure thing. 
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Re: Box office prediction for Bohemian Rhapsody

Postby Immanuel » Wed Oct 17, 2018 1:48 pm

I'm not an expert when it comes to box office predictions at all, but your estimation seems a bit low to me.
I hope it will at least make 300 - 400 m worldwide.
 
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Re: Box office prediction for Bohemian Rhapsody

Postby Michael Allred » Wed Oct 17, 2018 3:55 pm

Immanuel wrote:I'm not an expert when it comes to box office predictions at all, but your estimation seems a bit low to me.
I hope it will at least make 300 - 400 m worldwide.


There's just no way BR makes that much worldwide. The top grossing music biopic was Straight Outta Compton with $161 million.
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Re: Box office prediction for Bohemian Rhapsody

Postby Michael Allred » Wed Oct 17, 2018 5:19 pm

One other thing worth noting (unfortunately) is the Bryan Singer effect which is to say will his past behavior, accusations of sexual misconduct etc be brought up again by the media both during the film's opening and during awards season? Such things, whether true or not, could torpedo the movie completely.
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Re: Box office prediction for Bohemian Rhapsody

Postby Another_Roger » Wed Oct 17, 2018 5:22 pm

Honestly I think Bohemian Rhapsody will beat "Straight out of compton" easily worldwide. In US it will be another story. If you look at the box office it only made 40 millions abroad (161 million domestic).

Source:
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=straightouttacompton.htm
 
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Re: Box office prediction for Bohemian Rhapsody

Postby Immanuel » Wed Oct 17, 2018 6:08 pm

Mama mia (the first one) made over 600 m. I know that movie isn't a biopic, but I think the music of Abba attracted a lot of people to that movie. I think the music of Queen will attract a lot of people to BR. In that sense BR isn't really comparable to the other biopics, such as straight outta compton or Ray, because Queen is much more popular (worldwide) than NWA or Ray Charles.
 
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Re: Box office prediction for Bohemian Rhapsody

Postby KNIGHT » Wed Oct 17, 2018 8:07 pm

I think it could reach something like $35+ million opening weekend in the US, similar what happened with A Star Is Born. Nevertheless I always thought that this movie will be a bigger money maker international than in the US.


I think the final numbers for Bohemian Rhapsody will be something like this:

US opening weekend: $30-35 million
US total: $90-110 million
Outside US: $270-350 million (UK: $75-85 million)
Total Worldwide: $360-460 million

I think this numbers are't bad for a biographical drama/musical........as a Queen fan I hope they are bigger, much bigger.......
 
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Re: Box office prediction for Bohemian Rhapsody

Postby KNIGHT » Wed Oct 17, 2018 8:28 pm

Michael Allred wrote:Legit predictions from reliable box office sites are projecting the film to debut in America with an opening weekend of around $30 million which would make it the 2nd largest ever here for musical biopics after the smash hit "Straight Outta Compton." 
After that, who is to say? Much will depend on critics reviews, word of mouth and competition. 
I've been following box office numbers personally for almost 20 years.
My educated guess is that while $100 million is far out of the question in America, I can see it finishing it's run in the $50 to $60 million range and for Queen that would be a bonafide hit. 

As for the rest of the world, considering Queen's long time popularity and Freddie's ascent into god-like status, I would venture to say $100 million from all other territories combined is almost a sure thing. 


Darling, I have to say that my educated guess is that you're completely wrong!

Only $100 million outside US?!?!?!? It seems to me, very little.
Straight Outta Compton was a smash hit? Yes, it was, but only in the US. Outside US…..hhmmm….not so much.

My doubt is how much money will be made in the US opening weekend. But that is not necessarily important, like what happened with The Greatest Showman. It could open with a small opening weekend and close with a very good revenue by the end of is run.
 
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Re: Box office prediction for Bohemian Rhapsody

Postby Michael Allred » Thu Oct 18, 2018 1:13 am

Another_Roger wrote:Honestly I think Bohemian Rhapsody will beat "Straight out of compton" easily worldwide. In US it will be another story. If you look at the box office it only made 40 millions abroad (161 million domestic).

Source:
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=straightouttacompton.htm


It has a shot at making more internationally but again I have to stress this......if the media is going to go after Bryan Singer or more accusations come out of the woodwork, it will cripple the movie financially.
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Re: Box office prediction for Bohemian Rhapsody

Postby Michael Allred » Thu Oct 18, 2018 1:17 am

KNIGHT wrote:
Michael Allred wrote:Legit predictions from reliable box office sites are projecting the film to debut in America with an opening weekend of around $30 million which would make it the 2nd largest ever here for musical biopics after the smash hit "Straight Outta Compton." 
After that, who is to say? Much will depend on critics reviews, word of mouth and competition. 
I've been following box office numbers personally for almost 20 years.
My educated guess is that while $100 million is far out of the question in America, I can see it finishing it's run in the $50 to $60 million range and for Queen that would be a bonafide hit. 

As for the rest of the world, considering Queen's long time popularity and Freddie's ascent into god-like status, I would venture to say $100 million from all other territories combined is almost a sure thing. 


Darling, I have to say that my educated guess is that you're completely wrong!

Only $100 million outside US?!?!?!? It seems to me, very little.
Straight Outta Compton was a smash hit? Yes, it was, but only in the US. Outside US…..hhmmm….not so much.

My doubt is how much money will be made in the US opening weekend. But that is not necessarily important, like what happened with The Greatest Showman. It could open with a small opening weekend and close with a very good revenue by the end of is run.


I'm glad you're so optimistic but it's not entirely based on fact.

Biopics, musical or no, are not typically blockbusters. Bohemian Rhapsody will have to completely smash all records and expectations to deliver on what you suggest it will. That's just not realistic.
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Re: Box office prediction for Bohemian Rhapsody

Postby devogue » Thu Oct 18, 2018 3:28 am

The advertising spend is very healthy :

https://variety.com/2018/digital/news/bohemian-rhapsody-tops-studios-tv-ad-spending-1202980785/

What’s also interesting is the sports demographic being targeted - college football etc.

I think 20th Century Fox know they have a winner...
 
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Re: Box office prediction for Bohemian Rhapsody

Postby TheHero » Thu Oct 18, 2018 6:15 am

My unqualified guess is that it will also be massive in Japan and Australia.
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Re: Box office prediction for Bohemian Rhapsody

Postby Waggoner Will » Thu Oct 18, 2018 12:04 pm

I do have a horrible feeling it will only be mildly successful and viewed as an opportunity missed....
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Re: Box office prediction for Bohemian Rhapsody

Postby YAFF » Thu Oct 18, 2018 3:23 pm

Waggoner Will wrote:I do have a horrible feeling it will only be mildly successful and viewed as an opportunity missed....


Well, I would already consider it so. The story isn't true. The main punchline in the movie is not the truth. Freddie wants to leave Queen, tries to go solo, flops, desperately needs the band, then discovers he has HIV but valiantly does Live Aid anyway....FICTION. I honestly don't see the point in biographical flicks if the bio isn't factual. It's one thing to fill in the blanks with speculative material but to tell outright lies is obnoxious. It may be standard practice but that doesn't change the fact it sucks.

Anyway, the movie is going to be a smash hit, unfortunately.
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Re: Box office prediction for Bohemian Rhapsody

Postby slightlymad1970 » Thu Oct 18, 2018 6:26 pm

BoxofficePro predictions for Bohemian Rhapsody and it's opening weekend competition.

Boxoffice’s Long Range Tracking report takes a first official look at the 2018 holiday season this week with early projections for several key releases scheduled for November 2.

Bohemian Rhapsody
Opening Weekend Range: $25 – 40 million


Buzz around Rami Malek’s (Mr. Robot) anticipated performance as Queen front-man Freddie Mercury is driving strong interest and online conversation thus far, indicating potential for the film to follow in the footsteps of Walk the Line and Ray as an award-contending music bio released in November. The film’s director change midway through production may cause some initial concern, and while we expect some front-loading by Queen’s multiple generations of fans, early reactions from industry screenings of the film’s first half-hour have been very encouraging.

Tyler Perry’s Nobody’s Fool
Opening Weekend Range: $10 – 20 million


Rising star Tiffany Haddish (Girls Trip) could be a notable driving factor for this comedy, not to mention writer/director’s Tyler Perry’s own consistent audience. We’re somewhat conservative for now given the recent availability of the film’s first trailer, but early trends suggest it could be a fair counter-programmer.

The Nutcracker and the Four Realms
Opening Weekend Range: $15 – 30 million


Forecasting models for Disney’s next live action adaptation are volatile for now, due in part to what will be a stronger slate of kid- and family-driven releases later in November and December. Nutcracker‘s early trailers have generated a fair amount of positive sentiment online, staying power could be solid with the holiday season ahead, and the film’s notable ensemble cast may help appeal to parents. Still, we’re cautious given the mixed performances of Disney’s non-tentpole features in recent years. Initial trend and performance comps include the likes of A Wrinkle In Time, The BFG, and Alice Through the Looking Glass.

Will Bohemian Rhapsody top the US Box Office in its opening weekend? Looks promising but only time will tell!
 
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