The EU Referendum

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Should we leave the EU?

Poll ended at Tue Oct 20, 2015 5:12 pm

Yes
9
50%
No
9
50%
 
Total votes : 18

Re: The EU Referendum

Postby Roger » Mon Dec 04, 2017 6:30 pm

The UK leaving the EU and therefore leaving the freedom of trade area is fundamentally incompatible with having an unchecked border with the EU, which is an integral part of the Good Friday Agreement.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42217735

Something has to give. Either Brexit goes, or the Good Friday Agreement goes.

And I don’t think ‘the will of the people’ in England and Wales should have the power to send Northern Ireland back to the Troubles.

Other options include the Republic of Ireland leaving the EU, which won’t happen; Northern Ireland becoming a separate country, which won’t happen; or a United Ireland, which would be my ideal choice, but also won’t happen.
 
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Re: The EU Referendum

Postby fairydandy » Tue Dec 05, 2017 9:15 pm

We need another election now. May is out of her depth and the situation cannot continue (credit to her for sticking with it, she must be going through hell). She took a chance on her popularity at the last election, but somehow forgot that the 48% would use it as a chance to reverse the last referendum (despite liking her personally at the time). :? Still, what would be the point, Labour know that their core voters are anti-EU.

It's a ridiculous state of affairs when the only way forward is to stay in a club that most of us despise. The irony is, is that if there was another referendum, I feel the percentage to come out would actually increase.
 
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Re: The EU Referendum

Postby JLP » Tue Dec 05, 2017 9:20 pm

I just read a post on Facebook which stated if the DUP don't play ball, we should invade Northern Ireland. :shock:
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Re: The EU Referendum

Postby Roger » Tue Dec 05, 2017 10:00 pm

fairydandy wrote:We need another election now. May is out of her depth and the situation cannot continue (credit to her for sticking with it, she must be going through hell). She took a chance on her popularity at the last election, but somehow forgot that the 48% would use it as a chance to reverse the last referendum (despite liking her personally at the time). :? Still, what would be the point, Labour know that their core voters are anti-EU.

It's a ridiculous state of affairs when the only way forward is to stay in a club that most of us despise. The irony is, is that if there was another referendum, I feel the percentage to come out would actually increase.


We need a new referendum. I'm not sure what on, but there are lots of questions that need answering.

"Should the UK remain part of the EU?" doesn't come close to covering the nuances of this chaotic situation.

I struggle to get my head around it, but what I think we have, in a nutshell, is this:

1) 52% of about 70% want us to leave the EU
2) An absolute condition of the Good Friday Agreement is no hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland
3) Most of Northern Ireland want us to stay in the EU and would like Northern Ireland to remain in the free trade area
4) The Tories have unilaterally decided that leaving the EU means leaving the free trade area
5) The DUP is the only party that wants Northern Ireland to be treated in exactly the same way as the rest of the UK, which means leaving the free trade area
6) The Tories depend on the DUP because they didn't win enough seats
7) The DUP are happy for Northern Ireland to be treated differently when it comes to abortion and same-sex marriage
8) The DUP therefore will not allow Northern Ireland to remain in the free trade area, even though that is the ONLY way to avoid a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, unless Brexit is cancelled or Northern Ireland leaves the UK

So it's great that 52% of 70% of us say that the UK should leave the EU, but it is quite literally impossible at the moment. If 52% of 70% of people voted for the UK to invade the 12th century, would the government really have to try their very hardest to ensure that the 'will of the people' was delivered? It doesn't matter how many people vote for something, if it can't be done, it can't be done. That's not democracy, it's common sense.

Speaking of democracy: Benjamin Franklin once said that democracy could be two wolves and a lamb voting on what to eat for lunch. Democracy is great, but it's not flawless.

Unless something else changes, and if we're so keen on 'the will of the people', surely those people should have some say in what changes?

Some possible referenda:

1) Should the Good Friday Agreement be abandoned?
2) Should Northern Ireland become part of the Republic of Ireland? (presumably this referendum would require agreement from the Republic)
3) Given that the facts have now been established (most were known beforehand but wilfully ignored by the electorate), should the UK still leave the EU?
4) Should leaving the EU require the UK to leave the free trade area? (nothing about this was specified in the referendum last year, see Norway and Switzerland)

And just to add to the silliness of the situation, we currently have one part of the UK, Northern Ireland, who want to stay part of the EU and the Tories WANT that, but they can't because the one NI party that doesn't want that to happen can hold the Tories to ransom; meanwhile Scotland also want to stay part of the EU, and their ruling party also wants this, but they're not allowed to.

The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland is an absolute omnishambles.
 
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Re: The EU Referendum

Postby Roger » Tue Dec 05, 2017 10:07 pm

It's such hard work being right ALL the time.

And that was before the DUP was even a factor.


Sat Jun 25, 2016 3:09 pm

Elessar wrote:Northern Ireland is fucked too. As we want to 'take back control' of our borders, there'll have to be some serious border control at the only land border we share with the EU. At the moment you can drive from Northern Ireland to the Republic of Ireland and the only thing you notice is the speed limit changes from miles to kilometres. That will have to end, otherwise EU citizens (including the Poles that Britain clearly hates) will be able to freely enter the UK. So goodbye to the Good Friday peace deal!

Edit: Just realised, there's also a land border between Gibraltar and the EU as well. Naturally, they're also fucked.
 
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Re: The EU Referendum

Postby Roger » Tue Dec 05, 2017 10:11 pm

fairydandy wrote: She took a chance on her popularity at the last election, but somehow forgot that the 48% would use it as a chance to reverse the last referendum (despite liking her personally at the time). :? Still, what would be the point, Labour know that their core voters are anti-EU.


She tried to make it about the EU and failed. You're absolutely right, Corbyn is anti-EU (ish), so if this has been a de facto second referendum, May's gamble would probably have paid off.

However, she underestimated how deeply the Tories are hated by millions of people. I think the Tories actually got more votes this time than in 2015, but lost key seats due to Labour being resurgent.
 
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Re: The EU Referendum

Postby Roger » Tue Dec 05, 2017 11:07 pm

Actually here’s an even simpler version.

Pick 2:

1) Brexit
2) Good Friday
3) Coalition with DUP

It is impossible to have all 3.
 
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Re: The EU Referendum

Postby JLP » Tue Dec 05, 2017 11:26 pm

Roger wrote:Actually here’s an even simpler version.

Pick 2:

1) Brexit
2) Good Friday
3) Coalition with DUP

It is impossible to have all 3.


We certainly don't want a return to the violence in Northern Ireland that was so common for decades. Maybe May will have to call another election and play the Brexit card in the hope it wins her a majority.
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Re: The EU Referendum

Postby Roger » Tue Dec 05, 2017 11:32 pm

I think that even with the DUP out of the picture it could still be a problem.

There’s no way Scotland will be happy with the idea of NI getting to keep all the advantages of the EU while they have to lose them despite not voting for Brexit.

And the DUP have power over NI even without the coalition with the Tories.

I wonder if there’d be any value in a border poll in Ireland? I know Corbyn is in favour of one; the Tories are explicitly against it. But at the moment I think the result of a border poll would be a ‘No’ vote, which would perhaps weaken the Republic’s ability to make demands. But again, that would threaten Good Friday.
 
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Re: The EU Referendum

Postby fairydandy » Wed Dec 06, 2017 6:34 am

Roger wrote:
So it's great that 52% of 70% of us say that the UK should leave the EU, but it is quite literally impossible at the moment. If 52% of 70% of people voted for the UK to invade the 12th century, would the government really have to try their very hardest to ensure that the 'will of the people' was delivered? It doesn't matter how many people vote for something, if it can't be done, it can't be done. That's not democracy, it's common sense.


The 70% is not relevant, because there's no reason to suppose that the split in the 30% would be any different to that of the final result. In fact, I suspect that a quite high percentage of that 30% would be dimwit Brexiteers, so the 52% would actually go up.
 
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Re: The EU Referendum

Postby WeeMann » Wed Dec 06, 2017 7:40 am

JLP wrote:
Roger wrote:Actually here’s an even simpler version.

Pick 2:

1) Brexit
2) Good Friday
3) Coalition with DUP

It is impossible to have all 3.


We certainly don't want a return to the violence in Northern Ireland that was so common for decades. Maybe May will have to call another election and play the Brexit card in the hope it wins her a majority.


Alternatively she calls an election in the hope that she loses and Corbyn has to deal with the shit. Whoever is in power during this process is screwed in the long term, as we discussed when Cameron stepped down.
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Re: The EU Referendum

Postby Roger » Wed Dec 06, 2017 8:26 am

fairydandy wrote:
Roger wrote:
So it's great that 52% of 70% of us say that the UK should leave the EU, but it is quite literally impossible at the moment. If 52% of 70% of people voted for the UK to invade the 12th century, would the government really have to try their very hardest to ensure that the 'will of the people' was delivered? It doesn't matter how many people vote for something, if it can't be done, it can't be done. That's not democracy, it's common sense.


The 70% is not relevant, because there's no reason to suppose that the split in the 30% would be any different to that of the final result. In fact, I suspect that a quite high percentage of that 30% would be dimwit Brexiteers, so the 52% would actually go up.


Those 30% did make a decision, and that decision was not to vote. They shouldn’t be assumed to be Brexiters OR Remainers. The point is that the Brexiters can only claim a majority of those who voted, not a majority of the electorate.

And the fact remains that they voted for the impossible. That’s fine - I’d vote for impossible stuff as well if I liked the sound of it. Unlimited cash for everyone; discounted time travel for 18-35 year olds; government loan schemes for first time buyers of flux capacitors for instantaneous teleportation; Liverpool to win the Premier League this decade. I’d vote for all of these things, but they’re simply not possible. Democracy doesn’t mean that people can vote for literally anything conceivable; it has to also be possible.

I’m not saying Brexit is impossible - of course there are ways it could happen. But all would involve major changes to the UK, and in particular to the border with Ireland. The Good Friday Agreement is one of the greatest triumphs of recent international diplomacy, and one of the few things Blair can be proud of. Throwing that away because of a referendum that didn’t even reference it would be a tragedy.
 
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Re: The EU Referendum

Postby fairydandy » Wed Dec 06, 2017 6:07 pm

Roger wrote:Those 30% did make a decision, and that decision was not to vote. They shouldn’t be assumed to be Brexiters OR Remainers. The point is that the Brexiters can only claim a majority of those who voted, not a majority of the electorate.



Well, that's true of all our general elections too, but it's the way that it is and they were the rules of the referendum, as set out at the outset. :? It works both ways of course and 48% of the 70% of the people who voted Remain, is even less. Let's face it, if Remain won the referendum, no one would be saying that they only won it with only 52% of the 70% who voted and they therefore they didn't have a real majority. By now, all of this would have gone away and we would have continued into closer and closer integration.

In reality, this is really about the fact that stupid people got a vote and the intelligent people are trying to overturn it because they know better! It can't work like that, it mustn't work like that.

Impossible? No, it's never impossible, but yes, it's difficult. That's not our issue though, nor was it part of the question.
 
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Re: The EU Referendum

Postby JLP » Wed Dec 06, 2017 6:18 pm

fairydandy wrote:
Roger wrote:Those 30% did make a decision, and that decision was not to vote. They shouldn’t be assumed to be Brexiters OR Remainers. The point is that the Brexiters can only claim a majority of those who voted, not a majority of the electorate.



Well, that's true of all our general elections too, but it's the way that it is and they were the rules of the referendum, as set out at the outset. :? It works both ways of course and 48% of the 70% of the people who voted Remain, is even less. Let's face it, if Remain won the referendum, no one would be saying that they only won it with only 52% of the 70% who voted and they therefore they didn't have a real majority. By now, all of this would have gone away and we would have continued into closer and closer integration.

In reality, this is really about the fact that stupid people got a vote and the intelligent people are trying to overturn it because they know better! It can't work like that, it mustn't work like that.

Impossible? No, it's never impossible, but yes, it's difficult. That's not our issue though, nor was it part of the question.


It is a real pity that BOTH sides could not have been more truthful during the referendum instead of using lies and scare mongering. It might not have changed the result but who knows. The Brexit side ran the better campaign with posters about the subject that must not be discussed and the NHS cash promise. The remain campaign focussed too much on scare tactics.
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Re: The EU Referendum

Postby fairydandy » Wed Dec 06, 2017 6:31 pm

JLP wrote:The remain campaign focussed too much on scare tactics.


...and they are still doing it!
 
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